{"id":15676,"date":"2018-04-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-04-05T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.toggl.com\/sunk-cost-fallacy\/"},"modified":"2024-06-15T07:41:14","modified_gmt":"2024-06-15T07:41:14","slug":"sunk-cost-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/toggl.com\/blog\/sunk-cost-fallacy","title":{"rendered":"What Is the Sunk Cost Fallacy? And How to Avoid It in 5 Steps"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>The sunk-cost fallacy is a trap most people fall into. It\u2019s hard to abandon a project once you\u2019ve invested so much of your time and money into the cause.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately, the sunk-cost fallacy prevents a very real danger to our lives: by falling for the trap, we risk losing much more than our initial investment in an anxious attempt to recoup the loss.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here at Toggl, we care a <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">lot <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">about the sunk cost trap\u2013it wastes time that could otherwise have been spent on something productive. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That\u2019s why we built a <a href=\"https:\/\/toggl.com\/track\/time-management\/\">time management system<\/a> that can help you run your business and spend your day on the projects that count. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are a few steps that you should take to wrangle the fear of sunken costs out of your decision-making, but let\u2019s discuss what it is first.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>What\u2019s the sunk cost fallacy?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A \u201csunk cost\u201d is any expense that can\u2019t be refunded or recovered. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For example: once you pay for 10 gallons of gas, the money you spent can\u2019t be recovered\u2013you can\u2019t trade your gas back for money. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Like a ship that\u2019s already sunk, it can\u2019t be revived or taken back in any way. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The sunk cost fallacy goes by a number of aliases, including:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sunk cost effect<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sunk cost heuristic<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Concorde fallacy<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Argument from waste<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investment trap<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Escalation of commitment<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Irrational escalation<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Escalation bias<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/psycnet.apa.org\/fulltext\/2015-20028-012.html\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">American Psychological Association<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> ran a study showing that different cultures experience the sunk cost fallacy in varying degrees. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, there are two main psychological factors that drive the phenomenon all around the world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/p\/prospecttheory.asp\" target=\"_blank\">1. Prospect Theory<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The prospect theory explains that people make decisions based on the prospects of a decision (essentially, the potential value of losses and gains) rather than on the final outcome. It\u2019s a theory that was developed back in 1979 by <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Daniel_Kahneman\" target=\"_blank\">Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky<\/a>, who said that because people place more value on potential gains, they\u2019re willing to take more risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Another study (from 1986) shows that \u201cpeople are more risk-averse in gain situations and more riskprone in loss situations.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This really just means that when people have lost money, they\u2019re willing to take more risks in the hope of recouping the loss. When they\u2019ve already profited, however, they\u2019re more cautious\u2013because they don\u2019t want to lose their gain.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Self-justification\" target=\"_blank\">2. Self-Justification Theory<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Self-justification theory is another possible cause of sunk-cost fallacy\u2013it suggests that people don\u2019t like to admit that they\u2019re wrong or made a mistake. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a sunk cost situation, this theory predicts that people will continue a bad investment in order to prove or reaffirm that their original decision was right. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Different reasons, same ultimate effect\u2013falling for the sunk cost trap. At the heart of this fallacy is a fear of \u201cwaste\u201d. Our time and money is valuable, and it can be hard to turn away after we\u2019ve invested so much in a project.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>How does it affect me and my business?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The sunk-cost fallacy is a little bit like this: imagine you\u2019re a knight on your way to fight the dragon. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You take a wrong turn somewhere and chance upon this twisty, windy path full of thorns, lava, and other generally frightening things. <\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What would you do?<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you know that the road up ahead is full of danger, would you continue? <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some people will turn back and try and find a different path, or start a different project entirely (fight an ogre instead, maybe?). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Others, though, might think, \u201cWell, I\u2019ve already traveled this far. I might as well keep going,\u201d despite the fact that they might lose their sword, or worse\u2013their lives (aka investments, business opportunities, etc.).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The sunk cost fallacy will only become more dangerous as you scale. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The stakes get higher, and the investments get larger. Spending $5 on a snack that tastes terrible is easier to stomach than investing $100,000 in a project that\u2019s most likely going to fail. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s painful\u2013no one wants to \u201cthrow away\u201d 2 years of their lives, or hundreds of thousands of dollars. But the more you focus on past investments, the more cloudy your thinking gets. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/margiewarrell\/2015\/09\/14\/sunk-cost-bias-is-it-time-to-move-on\/\" target=\"_blank\">Sunk cost bias<\/a> doesn\u2019t just affect individuals or small businesses. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>It affects governments, too.<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Governments spend money on new military technology, but they aren\u2019t always successful. Sometimes projects become obsolete before they ever make it to completion. Still, it feels shameful to shutter the project\u2013so they spend more millions to finish the project, instead of using the money to invest in better options. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Logically, the second option makes more sense\u2013why throw money at a project that will never be used? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the decisions we make aren\u2019t always logical. It\u2019s why we shouldn\u2019t underestimate the threat of sunk cost bias.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong>How do I know if <em>I\u2019m<\/em> facing sunk cost bias?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The sunk cost bias isn\u2019t always bad. Under some circumstances, it makes sense to re-invest and recommit to a project. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For example: third-party experts might say that more time and resources could push Project Mario towards failure and away from success. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this case, it would make sense to consider sunk costs, and to press on at full speed. <a href=\"https:\/\/toggl.com\/track\/find-management-consultant\/\">A management consultant<\/a> would be able to help you analyze your project, but you can also create <a href=\"https:\/\/toggl.com\/track\/business-impact-analysis\/\">a business impact analysis<\/a> with your own employees.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And in a marriage (relationships are replete with sunk cost fallacies, especially as they grow longer), divorcing after the second fight probably wouldn\u2019t make much sense. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are differences between setbacks and disasters, so it\u2019s important to analyze which breed of problem you\u2019re facing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In a relationship: Have I done my best?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In business: Have I already given the project the necessary time and resources for success?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the answer is \u201cyes\u201d but the project is still failing, then it\u2019s time to walk away.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><strong>How can I avoid the sunk cost fallacy?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.psychologytoday.com\/us\/contributors\/robert-l-leahy-phd\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Robert Leahy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Director of the American Institute for Cognitive Therapy says, \u201cA model of good decision-making is always based on future utility or future payoff.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let\u2019s take a look at the different ways you can avoid sunk-cost fallacy in your business.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>#1 Build creative tension.<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some businesses strive for total synergy in their organization. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Others, however, prefer to create what\u2019s called <strong>\u201ccreative tension\u201d. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For example: the United States government has three branches: executive, legislative, and judicial. They work together, but also counter each other, preventing one branch from growing too powerful.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you have a creative team and a financial team, they will most likely have different goals. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finances has to make sure the project stays under budget. Creative has to make sure that the project is of high quality. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If Creative had their way, the result might be a gorgeous, way-too-expensive website. But if Finance had their way, the end result might be too lean. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Promoting creative tension and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.productiveflourishing.com\/a-users-guide-to-creative-tension\/\" target=\"_blank\">creating an internal system of checks and balances<\/a> can be a good way to prevent the sunk cost fallacy in your business.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">#2 Track your investments and future opportunity costs.<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Often, when making business decisions, we only consider the tangible financial costs and benefits of staying the course. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, it\u2019s important to consider the opportunity costs as well. By sticking to the original course, you give up alternative uses for physical, human, and financial resources.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keep track of your investments, and make sure you know how much time and money you\u2019ve spent. A good way to do this is to keep a schedule and time the hours you spend on each project. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A great tool to use is <a href=\"https:\/\/toggl.com\/track\/\">Toggl Track<\/a>, which will go one step further and alert you when you\u2019ve\u00a0gone over your time budget. After collecting the data, you can have honest discussions about where those resources are going.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Have an explicit discussion about all the alternative options that you must sacrifice in order to follow through on a sinking project. The results can be eye-opening. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you\u2019re having trouble thinking of questions to start the conversation, try these:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What can we do with the talented people that we\u2019re relying on? <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What alternative uses exist for the financial and physical assets that we want to use to save this project?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">#3 Don\u2019t buy in to blind bravado.<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you stick with a wobbly project because you\u2019re 100% convinced that it\u2019s going to succeed, you\u2019re\u2026gonna have a bad time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As a leader, plan for the conversation that must eventually happen if you must cut your losses. Don\u2019t think of it as admitting defeat\u2013think of it as redirecting those valuable resources (the real defeat would be losing any more of them) to more productive endeavors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 1996, <a href=\"http:\/\/davidbreashears.com\/about.html\" target=\"_blank\">David Breashears<\/a>, a famous Emmy Award-winning filmmaker and accomplished climber, had to make the decision to turn around while hiking Mt. Everest because they realized a blizzard was forming. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As they descended the mountain and returned to base camp, they passed some fellow climbers continue the journey up. That blizzard eventually turned into the 1996 Mount Everest disaster, where 8 people got caught in the storm and died.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019re often taught to applaud grit and perseverance, but there has to be a limit. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pure bravery in the sheer of overwhelming obstacles will only lead to disaster\u2013had Breashears insisted on continuing their climb, his team could have lost their lives as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As leaders, you\u2019re responsible for your team and tribes\u2019 safety. If you let pride and emotion cloud your judgment, you could do a lot of harm to the overall organization.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Speaking of emotion\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">#4 Let go of your personal attachments to the project.<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/edens\/thailand\/buddhism.htm\" target=\"_blank\">second noble truth of Buddhism<\/a> is that pain is caused by emotional attachment to things. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether you\u2019re a Buddhist or not, this point links back to the self-justification theory\u2013<strong>in an effort to escape from change and shame, we cling to our original decisions even though we know they have a great chance of failing.<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Instead of walking out into the sunlight, we end up lost in the woods.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shuttering projects that have taken up so much money and time is never easy, especially when you have to break the news to the rest of your teammates. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The more emotional attachment we have to a project, the harder it is to admit that it won\u2019t succeed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The sunk cost fallacy likes to attack when we\u2019re down. If our performance rating or our job depends on the success of a project, or we want to succeed to prove a point, we\u2019re more likely to barrel onwards. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No one <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">wants <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to be a leader that creates failed projects\u2013to protect our reputation and standing, we might disregard clear signs of danger.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The same happens in relationships: after all, what are we supposed to do when we\u2019ve been with the same person for decades? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It seems like a waste to just \u201cthrow away\u201d three or four decades, right? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And you <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">want <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to make it work\u2013you don\u2019t want the stigma of failure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let go of it. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Let go of the fear of failure. Let go of the fear of waste. By understanding that 1) things in this world change and grow, and that 2) not all projects will succeed, we can ease our grip on the reins and slow down.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">#5 Look ahead to the future.<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The sunk cost fallacy is all about looking over your shoulder (so often that you start getting a crick in the neck). Time is spent looking back at the path you\u2019ve already walked, and the obstacles you\u2019ve already faced. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Past investment. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Past risk. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Past choices. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s not very compatible with business decision-making, which focuses on getting <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">future <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">results. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Think about what you want to achieve in the future, and reflect\u2013is it really possible? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Will you be able to achieve the goals that you set wayyy back before you started the whole project? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Be honest and realistic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the future looks lighter and brighter <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">without <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the project in your plans, then cut your losses and let it go. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When you\u2019re bleeding, you\u2019d use a bandaid, right? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investing more money on a project you know will fail is like taking a blunt object and making the wound bigger.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Don\u2019t. Do. That.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Us humans are imperfect judges of self-interest, and we have a strong natural aversion to loss (according to Kahneman and Tversky, anyways). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keep that in mind when you\u2019re planning your portfolio, reflecting on a current relationship, or thinking about making a big investment. We feel the pain of loss more keenly than the pleasure of success\u2013and that pain can make us do some crazy things. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What do you really want now? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What are the patterns in your own decision-making, and how can you refine them? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By refreshing your mind and letting go of your fear and attachment to (f)ailing projects, you can make room for better, brighter things. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And who knows? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maybe you\u2019ll unlock a better world of opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The sunk-cost fallacy is a trap most people fall into. It\u2019s hard to abandon a project once you\u2019ve invested so much of your time and&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":457,"featured_media":13284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[848],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-growth"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What Is the Sunk Cost Fallacy? 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